Monday, December 22, 2008

Back from Hawaii

I am back from Hawaii, and given the weather difference (among other things), regretting being back.

Hawaii is truly paradise on earth. The trip was very relaxing and even a little life-changing, as being away from the rat race (and the crazy events of this past fall) leads to introspection. I feel somewhat recharged and will look to 2009 and beyond with a fresh focus.

I plan to post again actively but I am a little behind in my market analysis. I still believe that we are in a bear market rally until proven otherwise and I remain about 10% invested. I am looking to get to 20% or 30% possibly over the upcoming weeks and months possibly.

Big picture, I suspect that the rally will last into early spring (March/April) before another retest (and probably break of the November lows) into late spring/early summer. The clincher to the end of the rally will be when the prevailing wisdom will be that "the central banks and governments have rescued us from another Great Depression and that they have acted wisely". I used this sentiment reading fairly well back in May 2008 when the prevailing wisdom was the worst of the credit crunch was over (even the esteemed Warren Buffet said it). In hindsight, at that point, the truth was "you ain't seen nothing yet!".

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