Thursday, February 5, 2009

Still in the bull camp?

Since a huge reversal day on November 21st, the stock market has basically been in a “relatively” narrow trading range from 800 to 944. I mentioned that I had turned bullish back in late November (after a few failed attempts earlier in the month).

Am I still bullish?

Yes, but.

I am only about 20% long (mostly gold stocks, a little oil and a little SPY) right now and already planning my next shorting strategy.

Back on November 26th, I was looking for a rally to S&P 1000-1100 into late January to mid March. Now, I think, at the very best, we get to the lower part of that range. My gut tells me that we should test the 944 level we hit back in early January. It could even happen very quickly as a big rally day may be coming in the next few trading sessions. Perhaps ironically even on Friday, Feb 6th, when a horrible employment report is expected?

For now, as long as the S&P 800 level holds, I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. A high in mid March is still possible but I am now thinking that the top could be as early as mid February and as late as mid April. From that top, we would then drop sharply to test the November lows and I suspect that we take those lows out.

I will have much more to say on this later with better explanations, but my time is limited right now. I plan to post much more on my 2009 views next week…

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