Tuesday, March 24, 2009

A new bull or more bull

Mark Mobius. One of the most senior and most respected equity gurus in the world. Tons more money and way more of a following than yours truly.

Unfortunately, he is becoming synonomous with serial bottom calling. The history of great bear markets is such that they chew up the reputations of some greats (Remember Abby Joseph Cohen, Barton Biggs?).

Mark Mobius is stating that a "new bull" has begun. Too bad he said pretty much the same thing on September 23, November 17 and January 17 (thanks to Minyanville.com for the links). Every two months, he says the same thing from lower and lower levels... I agree that we are in a vigourous rally, but a classic bear market rally, in my opinion. Eventually, he'll be right, I guess...

As for yours truly, I am 35% long, as I added to positions last week. The only thing that I am short is the long treasury (TBT, which I am underwater on, thanks to Helicopter Ben's printing of money to buy the long treasury). Looking to add to my long position on the way up over the next few weeks. I am looking for this to be the mother of all bear market rallies, as we will probably take out S&P 944 in April, on the way to S&P1000 sometime later in the month.

1 comment:

chrispycrunch said...

TBT was not the place to be with the announcement. TLT looks like it will actually fall now, to 99-101, not go up as expected. Perhaps the market is smarter than we think

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