Monday, August 8, 2011


I haven't blogged for a long time. I just can't find the time given that family and work seem to take up nearly all of my time. Unfortunately, blogging also doesn't pay well for me, so as much as I would like to continue blogging and I have appreciated all the valuable comments, I don't think it will be possible, beyond an occasional comment.

The markets seem to finally waking up to the fact that there is just too much damn debt out there. Another recession is likely looming and with it, a bear market as well. A QE3 announcement from the Fed is more and more likely (although it will be interesting to see if the Tea Party is able to defeat it) and maybe another rally, but it appears that the markets are coming to the conclusion that you can not solve a credit problem with more credit.

Italy with $2 trillion of debt (about as much as Germany) can only be bailed out if it decides to give its sovereignty to Germany. Ditto for Spain. It can't be that easy as wars were fought over this type of thing in the past.

I still have all my long term bearish views from the past. However, I have learned from my mistake of being too bearish, on a cyclical basis, that when the sun is out, you need to go out and play. I was very bullish on certain stocks such as CMG and LULU but my bearishness prevented me from buying them once the market set a low in March 2009 (likely not THE low in my opinion). I subscribe to the Investor's Business Daily (William O'Neil) approach and if the market does give buy signals again, I will look for stocks.

For now, cash is king.  Preferably US cash, in my humble opinion.

Disclosure: long US cash, short Euro and the loonie

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I have been following your blog and held my gun off not buying a house since 2009 April. Now, the housing price has been up crazily... would you think there will be a big correction/crash soon?