Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Looking to get out of neutral

Still out of the bear camp and looking to get out of neutral...

It feels as if we are coming to an inflection point. It feels as if the bulls want to rally the market but we’re not quite there yet. Meanwhile, the bears keep sending the market lower, but not below the key October lows of 840, 850, 882. Yesterday we didn’t fall apart late in the day as we often did in October, so that could be construed as bullish.

As long as we stay above 882, I will stay neutral. If the bulls can rally this above 924, the bulls have the upper hand.

A big move is coming (not clear which way yet) and the risk window is closing. I can see both sides here. Any shorting should be done very carefully as should any longs. I am pretty much in cash here although that could change quickly.

I was clearly early on Monday by saying that risk was lowered. Risk remains high but only if we break the key levels above. Time may be up soon for the bears in 2008. Upside and downside risks must be respected here.

1 comment:

rick said...

Maybe it's time to retreat to your den?

Seems as though the government will allow GM to fail. That's the right tactic, but more bad news for the market. There is nothing but bad news now for at least 2 months. How can the market rally under these circumstances?

I think that you're right to wait for clear signs of a recovery before investing.