Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Minus 10%

CREA reported a -10% last week for October. We hit my target early, and once again, instead of being pessimistic, I was actually too optimistic!

Now Toronto is leading the way down at -10% after what appears to be a horrific September/October. Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton are all very negative. Ottawa and Montreal are near zero but holding up relatively well so far. I would expect them to be hit hard in the coming months.

I will not go after CREA as this press release was the most factual that I have seen ever. They did not make up fantasy spin, as I suspect that they realized that -10% was even too much for their spin to overcome.

I did notice that they dropped the reference to X of 25 markets being positive as the number is slowly sinking, and they know that it will eventually be 0 of 25 markets were positive YoY.

The carnage in the financial markets is spilling over to the Canadian housing market, and I suspect that we are going to be negative double digits for quite a while here.

Also note the increase in coverage of the falling market now that Toronto is leading the way down, as I suspected would be the case.

No comments: