Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Name Change

I have changed the title as the question mark is now beyond question, and I wanted to expand the title of the blog to reflect the expanded scope of the blog.

I think that whatever we are in right now is historic and in my mind at least, will be the greatest recession since WWII (and hence since the Great Depression). I do not believe that we are going to top that horrible decade of the 1930s but this will top all other recessions since then. The Japanese experience since the early 90s may be a better proxy but I believe that it will not last quite as long as that one did. The closest proxy in the Canada or the US will be the 1970s to early 80s where we had a string of severe recessions and stagflation although I don't believe we will have stagflation this time (more deflationary). I have called in the Great Recession to make it different from garden variety recessions. I have put 2008-2010 as I believe that the severe recession will technically end sometime in late 2009 or early 2010, although I expect things to "feel bad" for a long period after that.

I hope that you like the new title and I welcome your comments.


chrispycrunch said...

I actually argued against the market being the great depression. It's a nice headline, but we need to see 30% unemployment. Right now, I could see job losses hitting 10% in the U.S. Not sure if it can get worse beyond that. It will depend on the gov't stabilizing home prices.

Adil Burney said...

This is why I have used Recession instead of Depression. I also don't see unemployment of 30%. 10% is likely in the US. thanks for the comment!

rick said...

Ah, so you envision a recovery in 2010?

Adil Burney said...

Recession started late 2007, I believe. By late 2010, it will have been 3 years. At some point, you need a recovery even if it is anemic and unemployment is still rising. I am not saying that it will end in late 2010 though, only probably some point in 2010